Britain’s used car market is facing a prolonged shortage of one-to-three-year-old vehicles, warns Solera cap hpi.
Historic registration data, Department for Transport attrition modelling, and Solera cap hpi’s new car registration projections show the most pressure will be felt in the age bands most important to franchised and independent retailers.
Dylan Setterfield, head of forecast strategy at Solera cap hpi, said: “While registration volumes have recovered in recent years, the market is still dealing with the consequences of several years of reduced supply.
“As a result, retailers should expect competition for quality nearly-new stock to remain intense for some time.”
The one-to-three-year-old parc fell from 5.19 million vehicles in 2018 to 3.18 million in 2024, a decline of almost 39%.
Although volumes have recovered to 3.76 million this year, they are forecast to flatten off.
Solera cap hpi expects the parc to reach only 3.85 million vehicles by 2030, remaining more than 1.3 million units below its pre-pandemic peak.
The three-to-five-year age band stood at 4.98 million vehicles in 2020 and has fallen to 3.05 million in 2026. It is expected to rise to 3.83 million in 2030 (1.15 million below the peak).
The five-to-ten-year-old band stood at 10.54 million in 2024, but is set to drop to 7.29 million by 2030.
A second supply constraint could emerge later this decade. The company expects new car registrations to remain above two million units in 2026 and 2027 before declining to around 1.68 million by 2030.
The modelling attributes much of that reduction to the ZEV Mandate.
According to cap hpi, some manufacturers may respond by limiting overall vehicle supply, particularly of ICE models, rather than increasing BEV volumes sufficiently to meet compliance targets.
Vehicles aged under 10 years are forecast to fall from 22.65 million in 2020 to 18.42 million by 2030, a reduction of almost 19%.
The reduction in supply is likely to support used vehicle values, while increasing sourcing challenges for retailers and reducing choice for consumers.
