Autotrader forecasting a combined 10.17 million new and used vehicle transactions this year, up 3.4% year on year and the highest level since 2019.
At the centre of the outlook is a significant uplift in the new car market. Autotrader now forecasts 2.21 million registrations in 2026, representing annual growth of 9.5% and placing the market ahead of previous expectations.
The SMMT is expected sales to rise to 2.183 million units, 8% above the 2025 outturn
Alongside the stronger new car outlook, the used car market is also forecast to grow in 2026 to reach 7.95 million transactions, up 1.9% YoY.
It said while the percentage increase is more modest than that forecast for new cars, it represents “healthy growth” in a significantly larger, high-volume market, and would mark the highest annual volume of used car transactions since 2017.
Marc Palmer, head of strategy and Insights at Autotrader, said: “What’s particularly encouraging is that growth isn’t confined to one part of the market.
“New car registrations are recovering strongly but used car transactions are also increasing from what is already a very high base.
“That tells us the overall automotive market is growing, rather than new car demand simply taking sales away from the used market.
“New car buyers are benefiting from intense competition, attractive offers and greater consumer choice, while the used market continues to demonstrate its resilience despite an uneven supply picture. With cars continuing to sell quickly, car-buying intent remaining robust and wider consumer confidence improving, there are genuine reasons to be positive about the outlook for the remainder of 2026.”
Autotrader’s forecasts are based on its latest forecasting models, which combine established economic indicators with automotive market dynamics. The models have been refined this year to place greater emphasis on recent market behaviour and provide a robust, representative view of current conditions.
