Tesla’s Annual EV Production Capacity Is Set To Reach Almost 3 Million Units

By automotive-mag.com 11 Min Read

Tesla, the world’s largest all-electric car manufacturer, reports a stable installed annual vehicle capacity of 2.35 million units, according to its Q1 financial report.

The manufacturer outlined a plan to launch new models and increase its manufacturing output to three million vehicles.

During the first quarter of 2024, Tesla produced 433,371 EVs, 2% less than a year ago. Tesla explained that the decline “was partially caused by the early phase of the production ramp of the updated Model 3 at our Fremont factory and factory shutdowns at Gigafactory Berlin resulting from shipping diversions caused by the Red Sea conflict and from an arson attack.”

In this post, we will walk through Tesla’s EV manufacturing plants to see what’s going on at each of the sites.

Tesla’s Fremont factory has the potential to produce up to over 550,000 Model 3/Model Y a year, and up to 100,000 Model S/Model X. The only change compared to the previous reports is the addition of the word “over,” which indicates that there are some improvements related to the Model 3/Model Y.

In Q1, the factory produced fewer Model 3 because the company changed the production line to the updated model.

Tesla Factory in Fremont, California

Tesla Fremont Factory: Model S & X general assembly

Tesla Fremont Factory: Model S & X general assembly

Tesla’s first gigafactory was its lithium-ion battery cell plant, which makes 2170-type cylindrical battery cells in partnership with Panasonic, as well as other products (drive units, power electronics, energy storage systems, and parts).

Production of 2170-type batteries is expected to increase by about 10 percent. The plant will be expanded with a $3.6 billion investment to handle production of the 4680-type cells (100 GWh per year with a potential for more) and Tesla Semi electric trucks (potentially roughly 50,000 Tesla Semi per year).

The Tesla Semi’s status is “Pilot production” (no change here), described also as limited production by Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk.

According to a new photo from the Q1 financial report, Tesla started construction of the Tesla Semi factory near the Tesla Giga Nevada building:

Tesla Semi: Start Of Construction Near Gigafactory Nevada (Tesla Q1 2024 report)
Tesla Giga Nevada (Tesla Gigafactory 1)

Tesla Giga Nevada (Tesla Gigafactory 1)

Tesla Giga Nevada: Expansion Plans (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Nevada: Expansion Plans (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant has the potential to produce over 950,000 Model 3/Model Y per year. The plant remains the company’s export hub and accounts for about half of the total manufacturing capacity.

According to the company, production in the first quarter, “was down sequentially due to seasonality and planned shutdowns around Chinese New Year in Q1. Demand typically improves throughout the year. As we enter new markets, such as Chile, many of them will be supplied from Gigafactory Shanghai.”

Tesla Giga Shanghai (Tesla Gigafactory 3)

Tesla Giga Shanghai (Tesla Gigafactory 3)

Tesla Giga Shanghai: Body Shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Shanghai: Body Shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Berlin in Grünheide near Berlin, Germany has produced the Tesla Model Y (powered by 2170-type cylindrical battery cells) since March 2022.

The volume was down in Q1, according to Tesla: “Model Y production in Berlin was down sequentially due to impacts from the Red Sea conflict and the arson attack that impacted the factory. Despite idle capacity charges and other costs from production disruptions, COGS per unit continued to decline sequentially.”

The capacity is estimated at “over 375,000” annually, compared to “375,000” reported previously. It indicates some improvement.

In March 2023, the company announced the production rate reached 5,000 Tesla Model Y units per week.

At some later point, the company is expected to start production of a new version powered by 4680-type cylindrical battery cells.

Tesla Giga Berlin (Tesla Gigafactory 4)

Tesla Giga Berlin (Tesla Gigafactory 4)

Tesla Giga Berlin: Tesla Model Y paint shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Berlin: Tesla Model Y paint shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report)

Tesla Giga Texas in Austin started production of the Tesla Model Y in April 2022. According to the company, in May 2023, the plant achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y (all versions) per week. The most recent report says that Model Y production in Texas reached an all-time high, while COGS per unit improved to an all-time low.

The site produced two versions of the car—one equipped with 4680-type cylindrical cells and a structural battery pack, and the “legacy” version with 2170-type batteries and non-structural batteries (similar to the Fremont plant). Interestingly, in September 2023, the 4680-type version of the Model Y was removed from the online configurator.

Since Q4 2023, the factory has also produced Tesla Cybertruck pickups, powered by the 4680-type battery cells. According to Tesla, the ramp-up of this model continued successfully, reaching a rate of over 1,000 Cybertrucks in a single week in April.

The factory also produces 4680-type cylindrical battery cells. In October 2023, 4680-type battery production at the plant reached a cumulative level of 20 million units. According to the Q1 financial report, “4680 ramp continued successfully in Q1 and continues to stay ahead of the Cybertruck ramp. Costs continued to come down sequentially as scrap, yield and production rate improved.”

Tesla also noted that the next-generation vehicle will be produced at the Gigafactory Texas (from the second half of 2025): “In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.”

Tesla Giga Texas (Tesla Gigafactory 5)

Tesla Giga Texas (Tesla Gigafactory 5)

Tesla Giga Texas: 4680 cell production (Tesla Q1 2023 report)

Tesla Giga Texas: 4680 cell production (Tesla Q1 2023 report)

In March 2023, Tesla announced that its sixth gigafactory plant will be built in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico.

The plant will be used for next-generation electric vehicles—potentially a mass market, affordable electric car with annual production in the millions per year.

Initially, we heard that vehicle production might start in 2025, but a recent report suggests it might be later. Construction is expected to start in 2024 as permits were received in late 2023. The first production site for the model will be Texas (in the second half of 2025), so Mexico might follow in 2026.

Production sites (vehicles/battery systems)

Tesla’s total installed manufacturing capacity is more than 2,350,000 per year (over 650,000 at the Tesla Factory, over 950,000 at the Giga Shanghai, over 375,000 at Giga Berlin, and over 375,000 Giga Texas).

  • Tesla Factory in Fremont, California
    • Model S/X (capacity of up to 100,000 annually)
      Model S since mid-2012, Model X since late 2015
    • Model 3/Y (capacity of up to over 550,000 annually)
      Model 3 since mid-2017, Model Y since January 2020
    • Total output of up to over 650,000 S/X/3/Y
  • Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada
    • related to lithium-ion cell, module and pack production, energy storage products and drive units/power electronics
    • nearby, there is also a Tesla Semi pilot facility
    • Semi status: “Pilot production” (undisclosed capacity, pilot production since Q4 2022)
    • 4680-type cylindrical battery cell to be produced in the future (100 GWh/year)
  • Tesla Gigafactory 2 in New York
    • Related to solar, some energy storage products and charging equipment
  • Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China
    • Model 3/Y (capacity of over 950,000 annually)
      Model 3 since late 2019, Model Y since December 2020
  • Tesla Gigafactory 4 in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany, Europe
    • Model Y (capacity of over 375,000 annually)
      Model Y since March 2022
  • Tesla Gigafactory 5 in Austin, Texas
    • Model Y (capacity of over 250,000 annually)
      Model Y since April 2022
    • Cybertruck (capacity of over 125,000 annually)
      Cybertruck since Q4 2023
    • Next Generation Platform EV – from H2 2025
    • 4680-type cylindrical battery cells (undisclosed rate)
  • Tesla Gigafactory 6 in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico
    • Announced on March 1, 2023
    • Next Generation Platform EV
  • Tesla Kato Road pilot facility in Fremont, California
    • related to Tesla’s 4680-type cylindrical battery cells
      target: 10 GWh/year cell production
  • Tesla Megapack factory in Lathrop, California
  • Tesla Megapack factory in Shanghai, China
  • Unassigned models
    • “Next Gen Platform”: “in development”, to be produced in “various” locations including Texas
    • Roadster: “in development”, unassigned
      potentially will be assigned to the Fremont Factory (our guess)

Tesla announced that it updated its future vehicle line-up “to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.”

There will be new vehicles, including more affordable ones, based partially on the current platforms and partially on the next-generation platform. These new EVs will be produced at existing production lines, while the combined maximum capacity of the plants will increase to close to three million units. Tesla noted that it would be 50% more than in 2023.

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