The Society of Motor Manufacturers & Traders (SMMT) has called on the government to carry out an urgent review of the ZEV Mandate.
It published new research which it said showed the UK’s transition pathway was built on assumptions that have proved to be “over-optimistic.”
It said the gap between policy ambition and market reality continues to widen.
It added that the automotive sector remained “fully committed” to net zero but conditions have had changed so much, however, that failing to reassess the route risks undermining the very objectives the policy was designed to achieve.
Despite having the highest battery electric vehicle (BEV) market share of any major European market, the UK is already falling short of its own expectations.
In 2025, battery electric vehicles accounted for 23.4% of new car registrations – below the 28% ZEV mandate requirement, and short even of the 26% government originally expected would be achieved without regulation.
It said so far, the sector has bridged the gap between ambition and demand through discounting but with 2027 ZEV targets set to rise to 52% for cars, 46% for vans, this was not sustainable.
It also said battery costs were 30% higher than expected, energy costs have risen, the cost of public charging has risen and charging infrastructure plans were playing catch-up.
It added that the situation for vans was worse with sales well behind mandated targets.
The challenges are even greater for commercial vehicles. While almost two thirds of new van models are now available as zero emission, uptake in 2025 was 9.6%, barely half of the 16% required by regulation. For heavy goods vehicles, adoption is only just beginning – just 1.4% of the market in 2025 – reflecting the sector’s diverse operating requirements, high upfront costs “and the scale of charging and refuelling infrastructure still needed.
The UK’s EV transition pathway was conceived with the best of intentions – but the assumptions behind it have proved over-ambitious.
“A landscape which once looked solid has turned out to be quicksand. Recognising the world of 2026 is not the one envisaged five years ago is not a retreat from ambition; it is a necessary step to achieving it.
“We need an urgent review that reflects today’s realities, that delivers decarbonisation not deindustrialisation and offers consumers the choice they have always expected,” said Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive.
