Cox Automotive’s new car four-year forecast reveals petrol is expected to represent just 30% of new registrations, as EVs overtake with a predicted share of 36% by 2028. This figure still falls short ZEV mandate target but is a positive sign for EV adoption.
Over the past four years, diesel’s market share declined to just over 6% in 2024 (a 76.21% drop). Petrol lost 1.4 million units, representing a 26.61% decline. The rise of full-battery EVs has seen an increase of nearly 560%. Since 2020, around 979,000 EVs have entered the market (almost 20% of the total market in 2024).
Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive, said: “The next four years will remain volatile as the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever-evolving consumer demands.
“We will continue to bear witness to the rise of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while incumbent manufacturers adjust their in-market strategies.
“All while the industry responds and adapts to increasingly diverse local and internal regulations.”
Registrations fell short of the two million mark in 2024, resulting in a deficit of 1.7 million fewer vehicles on UK roads between 2020-24.
The 2025 baseline forecast predicts just over two million car registrations, a 1.5% increase over 2024.
Nothard said: “Breaking the two million mark in new car registrations in 2025 will be a pivotal milestone for the UK’s automotive recovery.
“Achieving this target will be heavily dependent on the ability of new market entrants to establish their brands and build trust with UK drivers.
“The confidence of the fleet and leasing sectors will also play a critical role in sustaining growth and driving the transition toward alternative fuel vehicles.”
