Franchised dealers expect to see more Q1 growth in used car sales than they do in new, according to JudgeService’s Dealer Confidence Barometer.
While 38% expect new car sales to be stronger, most think they will either be about the same (32%) or lower (30%). Half expect used car sales to be higher this quarter, 35% predict similar levels to last year, while just 15% expect them to dip.
Neil Addley, managing director of JudgeService, said: “The first quarter of the year has long been the most important for franchised dealers’ profitability. However, with most OEM campaigns now inevitably focused on incentivising new EV retail sales, dealers are understandably cautious as they know just how challenging those sales can be to retail customers.
“While franchised dealers will do their utmost to hit OEM targets, they expect any incremental volume gains to come from their used car forecourts.
“The confidence levels of independents are more measured. The first quarter of 2025 saw over 2 million used cars change hands for the first time since before the pandemic, so matching those high levels is a realistic target.”
Independents (52%) expect used volumes to be about the same as last year, while 29% say they will be lower and 19% expect an increase.
The quarterly JudgeService research also identified high levels of confidence among franchised dealers in their Q1 aftersales performance with 44% expecting it to be higher than 2025, 39% about the same and 17% lower.
Appetite for new entrant Chinese carmakers remains strong with nearly three-quarters of franchised dealers (73%) saying they are looking to represent additional brands.
