Six out of 10 (62%) used car dealers believe at least one existing major European car maker will be driven out of business in the next 10 years, according to April’s Startline Used Car Tracker which questioned 61 dealers.
Likely causes named include the cost of investing in electrification (mentioned by 40%) and their inability to compete with low-cost vehicles from Chinese new entrants (32%).
Paul Burgess, CEO at Startline Motor Finance, said: “The level of competition in the new car market prompted by new entrants alongside the very high degree of investment required to electrify means this might be the toughest moment many long-established and storied European car makers have faced in living memory. They are under huge pressure.
“Our research shows a majority of dealers don’t believe all these companies will survive into the mid-2030s as a result. However, others think mergers and acquisitions, market protections and sheer brand strength will play a part in their preservation.
“It’s also interesting that almost one in five believe European car makers are already becoming more competitive with their Chinese counterparts and certainly some, such as Renault and BMW, appear to be successfully embracing electrification as an opportunity.”
Also, 26% think they will not be able to keep up with new technologies such as self-driving cars, while 10% say established manufacturers will be harmed by buyers becoming less brand conscious.
However, 21% believe European car makers will survive through mergers or acquisitions, 18% say they are already becoming more competitive with Chinese brands, 18% that brand and design strength will save them and 8% that tariffs and other protections will prove effective.
When the Tracker asked whether Japanese and Korean car makers were as much under threat as European ones, 49% of used car dealers agreed.
