Practically no modern EV launch has gone off without a hitch. Whether you’re a startup like Fisker or part of the establishment like Volvo, the last several years have proven it’s fair to expect pain when ramping up production of a new electric model. Software, supply chains, battery issues, quality—they can all create speed bumps or, worse yet, full-on disasters.
Rivian is banking its entire future on the R2 rollout being smooth and successful. That starts with 20,000 to 25,000 units shipped in 2026, as we reported last month. TechCrunch puts that target into context in a great analysis out Thursday. You should go read it for the full picture.
But here’s one takeaway: By aiming to sell 20,000 R2s within six months, the outlet says Rivian plans “one of the fastest EV launches in U.S. history.” Only the Tesla Model Y hit that milestone in less time, TechCrunch found. Some took much longer than that. The Chevy Blazer EV, dogged by software issues and a pause in sales, didn’t hit 20,000 cumulative sales until over a year after it launched.
The R2 is Rivian’s best chance yet to hit real scale and turn a profit—to have a “Model Y moment,” if you will. But the U.S. EV market could not be more different than when Tesla’s best seller landed. At the same time, the Model Y’s success proves that there’s a big market for EVs that get things right.
Many factors will determine how quickly Rivian can ramp things up, but a couple are on my mind. There’s the manufacturing issue, of course. The startup says it’s much better prepared for this launch than it was for the R1S or R1T.
Another question is pricing. What Rivian has going for it is a loyal fanbase that’s clamoring to buy an R2. But what will it cost when production starts, and will that meet the market? We’ll know more when the company reveals more about the R2 lineup on March 12.
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