Welcome back to Critical Materials, your go-to source for the biggest stories driving the future of transportation. On the docket today: Fully automated car factories may happen sooner than you think, EV battery recycling gets supercharged, and some troubling data is out on America’s car loans.
25%: ‘Dark Factories’ Are Coming
Tesla wants its Optimus robots to help out in its factories.
Photo by: Tesla
Increasingly capable robots and artificial intelligence could fundamentally change how cars are made this decade. By 2030, there will be at least one automotive “dark factory” in the U.S. or China, experts told Automotive News.
That’s a facility where 100% of the assembly line is automated and requires no human input. Since no people are theoretically involved, such a plant can be “dark” and operate at full steam, 24/7.
Carmakers have been chasing this sci-fi concept for decades—and they aren’t slowing down.
Hyundai, for example, just announced plans to build 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots per year by 2028 and put them to work in its factories. Tesla is already making Optimus robots on a limited scale in California. Elon Musk has been clear about his vision here; he wants to build a robot army that can help out at Tesla factories and take on other menial labor.
I’ve been to about half a dozen car factories in the U.S. and India. From what I’ve observed, even the most advanced assembly lines today still rely heavily on human labor. Installing things like wiring harnesses and dashboards requires workers to contort at awkward angles. These are the kinds of tasks where human dexterity still outperforms machines.
Today’s factories are designed around human hands that can adapt and perform complex tasks in unpredictable environments. Robots simply aren’t there yet. That may change over time, but for now, humans are still the ones doing a lot of the dirty work.
Famously, Tesla overdid it on automation in the early days of Model 3 production and had to pivot. “Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake,” Musk tweeted in 2018. “Humans are underrated,” he added.
But that was almost a decade ago. Has technology gotten so good that humans are now overrated? We may find out in the next few years.
50%: Colorado Wants To Mandate EV Battery Recycling
Millions of EV batteries will reach the end of their usable life in the coming years.
Colorado has among the highest EV adoption rates in the U.S., and now the state wants to be a leader in another area: battery recycling.
Democratic lawmakers in the state legislature introduced a bill this week that would mandate the safe recycling of high-voltage lithium-ion batteries. If it becomes law, EV batteries would have to be properly recycled once vehicles reach the end of their usable life.
Automakers could handle that responsibility themselves or hand out contracts to recycling companies. The legislation would take effect on August 1, 2028.
Here’s more from Colorado Public Radio:
By recovering materials from existing batteries, carmakers could avoid importing critical minerals, create local jobs and keep fire-prone EV batteries out of scrapyards. It’d also make future EVs even more climate-friendly, according to State Sen. Katie Wallace, a bill co-sponsor and a Democrat representing Longmont.
“Colorado is leading in electric vehicle sales, which is great for climate change, but that only matters if they can be responsibly disposed of,” Wallace said.
Millions of EV batteries are expected reach their end of life in the coming years. Without clear regulations, those batteries risk ending up in landfills or junkyards—instead of having their materials reprocessed and put back into the supply chain. So, regulation that sets clear recycling standards is certainly a welcome move.
75%: Underwater Trade-Ins Are Soaring In The U.S.
Americans are more underwater on their car loans than ever.
Photo by: Patrick George
Affordability is a huge and deepening issue in the U.S. car market. And the large amount of debt many buyers are taking out to buy cars isn’t helping matters.
Nearly 30% of trade-ins toward new purchases came with negative equity in Q4 2025, according to the automotive site Edmunds, the highest rate in years. Moreover, average amount owed on those underwater trade-ins hit $7,214, the highest level Edmunds has ever recorded.
That means a large number of car owners now owe significantly more on their loan than what their vehicle is worth when they trade it in toward a new purchase. So, if your Toyota Corolla is worth $20,000 currently, but you owe $27,000 on it, then you’d have $7,000 of negative equity.
The firm attributed these underwater trade-ins to a bunch of factors. High prices during the pandemic locked buyers into expensive loans from the start. People weren’t able to repay those loans at the same rate as their cars were depreciating. And when you to trade in, your outstanding debt doesn’t automatically vanish, which means this is cycle that could be very difficult to escape for some buyers.
Edmunds advises buyers to take into account all these factors before pulling the trigger on a new car. Minimize debt and take into account the true cost of owning a car—not just monthly payments—before you’re tempted to trade up for the shiny new thing.
100%: Will Robots Take Over Car Factories By The End Of The Decade?
Is this just as fantastical as ever? Or is it realistic thanks to advancements in robotics and AI. Let us know what you think in the comments.
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