The vehicle rental and leasing sector growth in 2025 could be impacted by tax rises, regulatory uncertainty and the ZEV Mandate.
The BVRLA’s Industry Outlook Report 2025 was launched as part of the Industry Outlook Conference yesterday. It suggests members are expecting a ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ year in 2025.
Gerry Keaney, BVRLA chief executive, said: “Expectations that 2025 will see consumer and business demand grow across the board are being offset by turbulent trading conditions and regulatory roadblocks.
“Eyewatering increases to employer National Insurance contributions. Upheaval brought about by the Court of Appeal’s ruling on motor finance commissions. Constant confusion over decarbonisation targets. There is no let up.
“Alongside a shifting operational landscape, BVRLA members and their customers are required to maintain their leading role in meeting ambitious road transport decarbonisation targets. Those targets only ramp up and the Report reiterates the sector’s need for support that matches the ambitions.”
Fleet demand and lower interest rates will result in improved market conditions, says the BVRLA. However, the extent of these improvements will depend on the identified causes for concern.
ICE car supply, cash flow, and the regulatory burden are expected to worsen in 2025. Each can be directly linked to the three macro factors from Q4 – NIC increase, ZEV mandate uncertainty and the motor finance commission ruling.
Residual value risk, supply constraints due to the ZEV mandate, and rising costs and energy prices are the biggest causes for concern in 2025. However, these featured down the rankings in last year’s report.
